Newly Released Studies Highlight Urban Growth in Baja

In late November, ICF grantee, COVYDE, coordinated the release of a book entitled Alternative Futures Study for the Region La Paz at a public forum with key civic leaders and elected officials in La Paz. The book co-authored by an academic team from Harvard University, the Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur (UABCS), the University of Arizona and Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas (CICIMAR) seeks to assist regional leaders in assessing alternative futures for the development and conservation of the La Paz region. The study looks at a range of scenarios to investigate how economic performance, demographic change, public and private investments and public policy choices could influence urban growth and land use change over the next 20 years. The study also assesses how these changes will impact the area’s hydrology and ecology, as well as its visual and economic landscape. The book is available online in both English and Spanish at www.futurosalternativoslapaz.org

Late last year a similar alternative futures study was undertaken in Loreto by the same team of researchers along with SDSU, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) and CIBNOR. Among the team’s key findings was that the municipality of Loreto faced serious groundwater shortages in the coming years due to proposed development that was slated for this community. See related link: Newly Released Studies Highlight Urban Growth in Baja http://futuroloreto.icf-xchange.org. This has prompted the community of Loreto to begin to seriously consider alternative sources for water including desalinization.

While desalinization is one potential solution to Loreto’s future water needs, it is not without its risks and care must be given to the environmental impacts of intake systems of surrounding estuaries and the brine releases to the surrounding marine eco-system. Also, in Loreto more attention needs to be placed on water conservation particularly given the fact that today government officials estimate that between 30-40% of Loreto’s water is wasted through normal usage due to leaks and inefficient infrastructure. To assist Loreto decision makers better address their region’s emerging water needs, ICF recently commissioned the San Francisco based Sherwood Design Engineers to undertake a study entitled “Water Management Challenges in the Loreto Region.” This study which highlights alternative desalinization technologies as well as recommendations for expanded water conservation is now available at: futuroloreto.icf-xchange.org/desalination/index.php

Collectively the ICF funded alternative futures studies for both La Paz and Loreto as well as subsequent studies by Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Sherwood Design Engineers collectively highlight the limits of urban growth in light of the fragility of Baja California’s water scarce, desert eco-system.